NCAAB
Bellarmine
0-2
Miami (OH)
1-0
Win Probability
Bellarmine travels to Miami in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Miami is projected to control the game through superior depth and execution, with the RedHawks' offense expected to operate efficiently while Bellarmine struggles to generate consistent scoring. The visitor's path to an upset runs through forcing Miami into uncharacteristic shooting inefficiency and capitalizing on transition opportunities, but on games shaped like this one—where the model has leaned this heavily toward the home team—that side has won 97% of the time. For Bellarmine to pull off the upset, it would need Miami to play well below its projections while the Knights simultaneously exceed theirs in both pace and shooting accuracy.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | M-OH | EV | BELL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -3600 | -1.8% | +1500 | -0.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -7000 | -2.4% | +2000 | +15.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -3000 | -1.5% | +1300 | -6.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -6000 | -2.3% | +1800 | +8.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -5000 | -2.2% | +2000 | +15.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 159.5 | -105 | +4.9% | -115 | -9.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 158.5 | -110 | +6.0% | -110 | -10.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 158.5 | -115 | +4.9% | -105 | -9.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 159 | -110 | +4.9% | -110 | -9.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 159.5 | -105 | +4.9% | -115 | -9.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Miami (OH) 94% to beat Bellarmine (6%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Miami (OH) the more likely winner at 94%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Miami (OH) a 94% chance of beating Bellarmine, against 6% for Bellarmine. Miami (OH) are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Bellarmine (0-2 so far) project to finish 11.0–18.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Miami (OH) (1-0 so far) project to finish 19.8–9.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 25% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bellarmine | 11.0–18.0 | 8% | 9% |
| Miami (OH) | 19.8–9.2 | 24% | 25% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Bellarmine and Miami (OH) come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Bellarmine have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).