NCAAB
Arkansas
1-0
Virginia
2-0
Win Probability
Arkansas travels to face Virginia in a matchup the simulation rates as a coin-flip, with the Cavaliers holding a negligible lean. The teams project to combine for just over 160 points, and the model sees a 47% chance the game clears the total — suggesting a defensive grind. Both offenses will need to execute in rhythm; how efficiently each team scores in the paint will determine who wins this low-possession battle. On games shaped this way, AccuScore's pick has won 57% of the time across thousands of graded contests. Virginia would need to force turnovers and limit second chances to pull away, while Arkansas must capitalize on transition opportunities to overcome playing on the road.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | UVA | EV | ARK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -142 | -6.0% | +120 | +3.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -134 | -4.9% | +112 | +1.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -140 | -5.8% | +120 | +3.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -140 | -5.8% | +115 | +2.0% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -143 | -6.2% | +112 | +1.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 159.5 | -110 | -0.5% | -110 | -4.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 158.5 | -110 | +2.0% | -110 | -6.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 158.5 | -110 | +2.0% | -110 | -6.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 159.5 | -110 | -0.5% | -110 | -4.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 158.5 | -110 | +2.0% | -110 | -6.6% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 48.4%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Virginia 52% to beat Arkansas (48%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Virginia the more likely winner at 52%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Virginia a 52% chance of beating Arkansas, against 48% for Arkansas. Virginia are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Arkansas (1-0 so far) project to finish 21.6–10.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 80% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Virginia (2-0 so far) project to finish 21.4–9.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 75% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Arkansas and Virginia come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.