Green Bay
1-1
St. Thomas
1-1
Win Probability
St. Thomas hosts Green Bay in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The game hinges on three-point shooting: St. Thomas projects to eclipse 79 points while holding Green Bay below 73, a gap that widens if either team's perimeter accuracy deviates from expectation. On similar games where the model leaned this heavily one way, the favoured side won 81% of the time across 1,320 graded contests. Green Bay would need to turn this into a defensive slugfest and convert at the line to overcome St. Thomas's projected offensive efficiency.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | STMN | EV | GB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -7 | -110 | -0.5% | -110 | -3.8% |
| Book | STMN | EV | GB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -320 | -1.7% | +250 | -3.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | 151.5 | -105 | -2.0% | -115 | -2.5% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes St. Thomas 74% to beat Green Bay (26%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes St. Thomas the more likely winner at 74%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives St. Thomas a 74% chance of beating Green Bay, against 26% for Green Bay. St. Thomas are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Green Bay (0-1 so far) project to finish 14.6–15.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
St. Thomas (1-1 so far) project to finish 18.9–10.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 35% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay | 14.6–15.4 | 9% | 8% |
| St. Thomas | 18.9–10.1 | 44% | 35% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Green Bay and St. Thomas come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
St. Thomas have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).