Idaho State
0-2
Air Force
1-1
Win Probability
Idaho State travels to face Air Force in a matchup where the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. Kam Sanders of Air Force has a 49% chance of exceeding 27 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Idaho State's Malachi Johnson projects at 49% to surpass 14 in the same categories—a gap that captures the visitors' disadvantage. The game turns on whether Idaho State can generate enough scoring depth; six of their players project between 13 and 17 combined, but none match Sanders' ceiling. In games where AccuScore has favored one team this strongly across 2,165 graded contests, the favored side won 68% of the time. An upset would require Idaho State's balanced attack to convert at a rate the model does not expect.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | AF | EV | IDST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -275 | -6.0% | +220 | +6.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 157.5 | -105 | -8.7% | -115 | +3.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 157 | -110 | -8.2% | -110 | +3.8% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Air Force 65% to beat Idaho State (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Air Force the more likely winner at 65%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Air Force a 65% chance of beating Idaho State, against 36% for Idaho State. Air Force are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Idaho State (0-2 so far) project to finish 8.3–20.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Air Force (0-1 so far) project to finish 6.7–24.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho State | 8.3–20.7 | 1% | 1% |
| Air Force | 6.7–24.3 | <1% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Idaho State and Air Force come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Idaho State have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).