NCAAB • Mon, Nov 9, 01:00
An unbeaten Penn State squad travels to face an unbeaten Pittsburgh side in a matchup where the simulation leans clearly toward the hosts. Pittsburgh's A'lahn Sumler (47% to exceed 27 combined points, rebounds and assists) and Naithan George (48%) anchor a balanced offensive burden, while Penn State counter with Ivan Juric (48%) and Dasonte Bowen (49%) spearheading their attack. The game hinges on whether Penn State can match Pittsburgh's depth in half-court execution; a cold shooting night or turnover problem would open the door for the Nittany Lions to stay close.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
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Penn State (2-0 so far) project to finish 14.5–16.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 13% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Pittsburgh (2-0 so far) project to finish 17.3–14.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 25% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | 14.5–16.5 | <1% | 13% |
| Pittsburgh | 17.3–14.7 | 1% | 25% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Pittsburgh 60% to beat Penn State (40%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Pittsburgh the more likely winner at 60%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Pittsburgh a 60% chance of beating Penn State, against 40% for Penn State. Pittsburgh are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Penn State and Pittsburgh come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Penn State have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Pittsburgh have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2017: Penn State 2, Pittsburgh 0. The last meeting, on Dec 21, 2025, finished Penn State 80, Pittsburgh 46.