NCAAB
Merrimack
0-2
UAlbany
2-0
Win Probability
Merrimack travels to UAlbany looking to improve on an 0-2 start against a host team that has won both its games. The simulation leans slightly toward the visiting Great Danes. This matchup hinges on perimeter shooting: UAlbany's offense will need to generate consistent three-point looks while Merrimack's defense tightens up after a slow start. On games shaped this way in the model's history, the favored side won 57% of the time. For UAlbany to pull off the upset at home, the Great Danes' guards would need to execute at a level that keeps pace with Merrimack's scoring punch.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | UALB | EV | MRMK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -135 | -10.7% | -166 | -6.1% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Merrimack 55% to beat UAlbany (45%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Merrimack the more likely winner at 55%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UAlbany a 45% chance of beating Merrimack, against 55% for Merrimack. UAlbany are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Merrimack (0-2 so far) project to finish 16.0–15.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UAlbany (1-0 so far) project to finish 12.9–18.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Merrimack and UAlbany come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.