NCAAB
South Alabama
1-1
UCF
2-0
Win Probability
UCF hosts South Alabama in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the Knights. The model projects this as a comfortable win for UCF, driven largely by South Alabama's offensive struggles—the Jaguars are projected to score just 69.3 points, well below what typically keeps a game competitive. UCF's scoring punch will be critical; the Knights need their offence to sustain efficiency through four quarters. On games shaped this way, AccuScore's favoured side has won 92% of 781 graded contests. For South Alabama to pull off the upset, the Jaguars would need to score substantially above projection while holding UCF well below its expected output.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | UCF | EV | USA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -3500 | -3.9% | +1280 | +21.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -1800 | -2.7% | +1000 | +6.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -3582 | -3.9% | +663 | -10.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | +3.6% | -110 | -8.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 151.5 | -105 | +4.9% | -115 | -9.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | +3.6% | -110 | -8.2% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes UCF 90% to beat South Alabama (10%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UCF the more likely winner at 90%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UCF a 90% chance of beating South Alabama, against 10% for South Alabama. UCF are at home and favoured on these numbers.
South Alabama (1-1 so far) project to finish 15.1–13.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UCF (2-0 so far) project to finish 15.1–15.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 27% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama | 15.1–13.9 | 7% | 7% |
| UCF | 15.1–15.9 | <1% | 27% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How South Alabama and UCF come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
South Alabama have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
UCF have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).