NCAAB
Siena
1-1
Dayton
1-1
Win Probability
Siena travels to Dayton in a matchup where the simulation strongly favors the hosts. When AccuScore leans this decisively toward one side, it has won 92% of similar games across its record. The game hinges on whether Siena can keep pace offensively; the model projects a scoring margin that would require the visitors to exceed their simulated output substantially. For Siena to pull the upset, they would need to overcome a decisive structural disadvantage and force a closer contest than the numbers suggest is likely.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | DAY | EV | SIE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -1200 | -2.9% | +720 | +3.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -1100 | -2.5% | +700 | +2.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1274 | -3.1% | +141 | -34.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | -6.5% | -110 | +1.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -9.0% | -110 | +4.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 151.5 | -115 | -7.4% | -105 | +3.1% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Dayton 87% to beat Siena (13%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Dayton the more likely winner at 87%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Dayton a 87% chance of beating Siena, against 13% for Siena. Dayton are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Siena (1-1 so far) project to finish 17.6–14.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 16% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Dayton (1-1 so far) project to finish 18.6–13.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 22% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Siena and Dayton come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.