NCAAB
Detroit Mercy
0-1
Xavier
2-0
Win Probability
Xavier hosts Detroit Mercy in a matchup that heavily favours the home side. The simulation sees this as a blowout, with Xavier's depth and efficiency overwhelming a Titans team that has yet to win. Detroit Mercy will need its perimeter players to sustain shooting—a steep ask on the road against a defence built to contest every look. In games where the model has leaned this decisively, it has won 97% of the time across 560 graded contests. For Detroit Mercy to pull the upset, it would need to lock in from three-point range and force Xavier into uncharacteristic turnovers early.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | XAV | EV | DETM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -50000 | -0.2% | +9000 | -22.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | 158 | -110 | -2.5% | -110 | -1.9% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Xavier 99% to beat Detroit Mercy (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Xavier the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Xavier a 99% chance of beating Detroit Mercy, against 1% for Detroit Mercy. Xavier are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Detroit Mercy (0-1 so far) project to finish 8.7–18.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Xavier (2-0 so far) project to finish 17.8–14.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 39% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Mercy | 8.7–18.3 | 2% | 3% |
| Xavier | 17.8–14.2 | 4% | 39% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Detroit Mercy and Xavier come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Xavier have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2018: Detroit Mercy 0, Xavier 1. The last meeting, on Dec 21, 2018, finished Detroit Mercy 55, Xavier 69.