Memphis
2-0
#22Vanderbilt
2-0
Win Probability
Vanderbilt hosts Memphis in a matchup between undefeated teams where the simulation decisively favours the Commodores. AccuScore's model has succeeded in 97% of similarly shaped games across 560 graded contests, a track record that underscores the strength of conviction here. Memphis will need to generate perimeter shooting and transition scoring to stay within range, as Vanderbilt's projected offensive output suggests a comfortable home performance. The game turns on whether Memphis can limit turnovers and keep pace in the opening half, since falling behind early would require an unlikely second-half surge to threaten an upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | VAN | EV | MEM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -2300 | -1.2% | +1060 | -12.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -10969 | -2.8% | +245 | -38.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 158.5 | -110 | -4.7% | -110 | +0.1% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Vanderbilt 94% to beat Memphis (7%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Vanderbilt the more likely winner at 94%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Vanderbilt a 94% chance of beating Memphis, against 7% for Memphis. Vanderbilt are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Memphis (2-0 so far) project to finish 18.4–12.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 25% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Vanderbilt (2-0 so far) project to finish 23.5–8.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 84% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | 18.4–12.6 | 14% | 25% |
| Vanderbilt | 23.5–8.5 | 12% | 84% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Memphis and Vanderbilt come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Memphis have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Vanderbilt have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2022: Memphis 2, Vanderbilt 1. The last meeting, on Dec 16, 2025, finished Vanderbilt 77, Memphis 70.