NCAAB
Evansville
2-0
Middle Tennessee
1-1
Win Probability
Evansville travels to Middle Tennessee in a matchup between a pair of early-season teams with contrasting records. The model leans decisively toward the Blue Raiders at home. Middle Tennessee's depth will be tested by Evansville's two-win start, but the simulation hinges on perimeter shooting—the visitor must find consistent range to keep pace. In games where the model favored one side this strongly across 1,331 graded matchups, that side won 81% of the time. For Evansville to pull the upset, it would need to overcome Middle Tennessee's homecourt advantage and force a pace that exhausts the Blue Raiders' rotation.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | MTSU | EV | EVAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -680 | -4.3% | +321 | -7.1% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Middle Tennessee 80% to beat Evansville (20%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Middle Tennessee the more likely winner at 80%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Middle Tennessee a 80% chance of beating Evansville, against 20% for Evansville. Middle Tennessee are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Evansville (1-0 so far) project to finish 6.8–22.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Middle Tennessee (0-1 so far) project to finish 12.0–15.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evansville | 6.8–22.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Middle Tennessee | 12.0–15.0 | 7% | 7% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Evansville and Middle Tennessee come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Middle Tennessee have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: Evansville 0, Middle Tennessee 1. The last meeting, on Nov 11, 2025, finished Middle Tennessee 77, Evansville 72.