NCAAB
Alcorn State
0-2
Murray State
2-0
Win Probability
Alcorn State travels to face Murray State in a contest where the simulation strongly favors the home side. AccuScore projects a decisive margin built on Murray State's offensive depth: the Racers' leading scorer is forecast to exceed 20 points in 73% of simulations, while Alcorn State's top option reaches that mark in just 31% of outcomes. The visiting Braves' path to an upset runs through perimeter shooting and limiting turnovers, but in games where the model has leaned this heavily toward one side, that side has won 97% of the time across 560 graded contests. For Alcorn State to pull off the upset, their role players would need to emerge as reliable secondary scorers while the Racers' bench production falls well short of projections.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | MUR | EV | ALCN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -20000 | -0.4% | +3500 | -26.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -20000 | -0.4% | +5000 | -16.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -9962 | -0.2% | +283 | -47.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 162.5 | -110 | -4.1% | -110 | -0.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 162.5 | -110 | -4.1% | -110 | -0.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 163 | -110 | -5.4% | -110 | +1.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 162.5 | -102 | -2.4% | -125 | -3.3% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Murray State 99% to beat Alcorn State (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Murray State the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Murray State a 99% chance of beating Alcorn State, against 1% for Alcorn State. Murray State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Alcorn State (0-2 so far) project to finish 8.4–23.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Murray State (2-0 so far) project to finish 20.4–10.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 23% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorn State | 8.4–23.6 | 3% | 3% |
| Murray State | 20.4–10.6 | 18% | 23% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Alcorn State and Murray State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Alcorn State have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
Murray State have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).