NCAAB
Texas State
2-0
UT Rio Grande Valley
2-0
Win Probability
Texas State travels to UT Rio Grande Valley with both teams undefeated, but the simulation favors the Bobcats in this matchup. DJ Hall has a 46% chance of exceeding 24 combined points, rebounds and assists for Texas State, while RGV counters with Jace Posey at 48% to clear 26. The game hinges on perimeter execution: Mark Drone's 49% projection to surpass 21 combined stats against RGV's B.B. Knight, who sits at 50% to beat 21, will likely determine which offense sustains pressure late. In games with this probability shape across different matchups, the favored side won 68% of the time. The Vaqueros would need a defensive effort that forces Texas State into inefficient shooting to pull the upset at home.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | RGV | EV | TXST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +225 | +8.7% | -280 | -6.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +135 | -7.6% | -351 | -8.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 145.5 | -115 | -2.0% | -105 | -2.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 145.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -110 | -3.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 145.5 | -129 | -4.5% | -120 | -5.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Texas State 64% to beat UT Rio Grande Valley (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas State the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UT Rio Grande Valley a 36% chance of beating Texas State, against 64% for Texas State. UT Rio Grande Valley are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Texas State (1-0 so far) project to finish 14.4–16.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UT Rio Grande Valley (1-0 so far) project to finish 15.2–14.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas State | 14.4–16.6 | 1% | 6% |
| UT Rio Grande Valley | 15.2–14.8 | 8% | 8% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Texas State and UT Rio Grande Valley come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Texas State have won 1 of their last 1 (W, most recent first).
UT Rio Grande Valley have won 1 of their last 1 (W, most recent first).