Saint Joseph's
2-0
South Florida
1-1
Win Probability
Moneyline
JOES
+175
27.1% win prob
EV -12.7%
Polymarket
Moneyline
USF
-5429
72.9% win prob
EV -12.9%
Polymarket
Saint Joseph's travels to South Florida as a clear underdog in this matchup. The simulation favors the Hawks decisively, projecting a low-scoring game that turns entirely on whether Saint Joseph's can manufacture enough offense on the road. In games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side has won 81 percent of 1,336 graded contests. For the visiting Hawks to pull the upset, they would need to overcome both the home-court disadvantage and the simulation's lean toward South Florida keeping them at arm's length throughout.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | USF | EV | JOES | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -5429 | -12.9% | +175 | -12.7% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes South Florida 73% to beat Saint Joseph's (27%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes South Florida the more likely winner at 73%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives South Florida a 73% chance of beating Saint Joseph's, against 27% for Saint Joseph's. South Florida are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Saint Joseph's (2-0 so far) project to finish 16.2–12.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
South Florida (1-1 so far) project to finish 22.5–9.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 42% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Joseph's | 16.2–12.8 | 4% | 9% |
| South Florida | 22.5–9.5 | 35% | 42% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Saint Joseph's and South Florida come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Saint Joseph's have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
South Florida have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).