NCAAB
Robert Morris
0-2
#19Arkansas
1-1
Win Probability
Robert Morris travels to Arkansas as a heavy underdog in this matchup. The simulation decisively favours the Razorbacks at home, a lean backed by historical precedent: in 581 graded games where the model leaned this strongly to one side, that side won 97 percent of the time. Jeremiah Wilkinson has a 47 percent chance of exceeding 35 combined points, rebounds and assists for Arkansas, while Robert Morris will lean on KJ Garris, who has a 48 percent chance of surpassing 22. The game turns on whether the visitors can generate enough offence to keep pace; for Robert Morris to pull off the upset, Garris and Jalik Dunkley—projected at a 47 percent chance to exceed 19 in combined stats—would both need to perform at the high end of their ranges.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | ARK | EV | RMU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -55290 | -0.3% | +248 | -48.8% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Arkansas 99% to beat Robert Morris (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Arkansas the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Arkansas a 99% chance of beating Robert Morris, against 1% for Robert Morris. Arkansas are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Robert Morris (0-2 so far) project to finish 14.5–16.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Arkansas (1-1 so far) project to finish 19.6–12.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 70% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Morris | 14.5–16.5 | 9% | 7% |
| Arkansas | 19.6–12.4 | 6% | 70% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Robert Morris and Arkansas come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Robert Morris have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
Arkansas have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).