Cal Poly
1-1
Grand Canyon
2-0
Win Probability
Cal Poly travels to face Grand Canyon in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the hosts. Jaden Henley of Grand Canyon has a 50% chance of exceeding 24 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Cal Poly's Hamad Mousa sits at 46% for more than 26 in the same category—a marginal gap that belies the wider gap in team strength. The game hinges on whether Grand Canyon's depth can sustain offensive pressure; the Antelopes project to 95 points while the Mustangs reach 76. In 581 prior games where AccuScore favored one side this strongly, that side won 97% of the time. For Cal Poly to pull the upset, their role players would need to match Grand Canyon's balanced scoring threat across Henley, Dan Skillings Jr., Makaih Williams and Dylan Darling.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | GCU | EV | CP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -10969 | -2.0% | +303 | -40.3% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Grand Canyon 95% to beat Cal Poly (5%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Grand Canyon the more likely winner at 95%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Grand Canyon a 95% chance of beating Cal Poly, against 5% for Cal Poly. Grand Canyon are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Cal Poly (0-1 so far) project to finish 10.0–20.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Grand Canyon (2-0 so far) project to finish 19.9–10.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 25% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly | 10.0–20.0 | 2% | 2% |
| Grand Canyon | 19.9–10.1 | 16% | 25% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Cal Poly and Grand Canyon come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Grand Canyon have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).