NCAAB
Oakland
0-4
Boise State
2-0
Win Probability
Oakland travels to Boise State looking to snap a 0-4 start against a Broncos team that has won its first two games at home. The simulation favours Boise State decisively. Oakland's offence will need to generate points in volume; the model projects the Grizzlies at 73.2 points, well below what typically keeps a visitor competitive in this spot. In games where AccuScore's model has leaned this strongly toward the home side, that side won 97 percent of 581 graded contests. For Oakland to pull the upset, it would have to overcome both its record and a projection that sees Boise State scoring in the high 80s.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | BOIS | EV | OAK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1800 | -0.8% | +1000 | -12.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -2000 | -1.1% | +950 | -14.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -1800 | -0.8% | +1000 | -12.6% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -2000 | -1.1% | +850 | -17.7% |
| betPARX ↗ | -2000 | -1.1% | +850 | -17.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 161.5 | -112 | +0.1% | -108 | -4.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | +0.5% | -110 | -5.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 162 | -110 | -0.5% | -110 | -3.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | +0.5% | -110 | -5.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 162 | -110 | -0.5% | -110 | -3.9% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Boise State 93% to beat Oakland (7%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Boise State the more likely winner at 93%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Boise State a 93% chance of beating Oakland, against 7% for Oakland. Boise State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Oakland (0-4 so far) project to finish 11.5–20.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Boise State (1-0 so far) project to finish 20.0–10.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 45% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland | 11.5–20.5 | 7% | 7% |
| Boise State | 20.0–10.0 | 12% | 45% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Oakland and Boise State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Oakland have won 0 of their last 4 (L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2022: Oakland 0, Boise State 1. The last meeting, on Dec 18, 2022, finished Oakland 57, Boise State 77.