NCAAB
Morgan State
3-0
UMBC
1-2
Win Probability
Morgan State travels to face UMBC in a game where the simulation decisively favors the hosts. The Retrievers' depth matters here: with a 49% probability the combined score clears the market total, this matchup hinges on whether Morgan State can keep pace offensively while UMBC's scorers stay efficient. On games shaped this way, AccuScore's favored side won 81% of 1,342 graded contests. The Bears' undefeated record means they arrive without margin for error, but UMBC would need a significant defensive collapse and Morgan State's role players to carry an unusual offensive load for the visitors to pull the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | UMBC | EV | MORG | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -275 | +1.2% | +220 | -10.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -275 | +1.2% | +220 | -10.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -316 | -0.6% | -102 | -25.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | -6.0% | -110 | +1.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | -6.0% | -110 | +1.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 161.5 | -115 | -6.9% | -129 | -2.2% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 75.1%
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AccuScore's simulation makes UMBC 75% to beat Morgan State (25%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UMBC the more likely winner at 75%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UMBC a 75% chance of beating Morgan State, against 25% for Morgan State. UMBC are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Morgan State (1-0 so far) project to finish 11.5–15.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UMBC (0-2 so far) project to finish 15.2–13.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan State | 11.5–15.5 | 13% | 11% |
| UMBC | 15.2–13.8 | 23% | 18% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Morgan State and UMBC come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UMBC have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2023: Morgan State 1, UMBC 1. The last meeting, on Nov 11, 2025, finished UMBC 81, Morgan State 79.