Mercyhurst
1-2
Penn State
2-1
Win Probability
Mercyhurst travels to Penn State in a clash between teams at opposite ends of their early season arcs. The simulation strongly favours the home side, projecting a comfortable margin behind Penn State's offensive efficiency. Mercyhurst's defence will need to contain Penn State's scoring threats, a tall order given the gap in how the model sees these teams. On 607 similar matchups where AccuScore leaned this decisively, the favoured side won 97 percent of the time. For the Lakers to pull the upset, they would need to both limit Penn State's output and sustain an offensive performance well above their season average.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | PSU | EV | MERC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -7000 | -1.7% | +2000 | +0.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -5000 | -1.4% | +2000 | +0.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -3582 | -1.1% | +340 | -39.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | +1.7% | -110 | -6.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | +1.7% | -110 | -6.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 147.5 | -5429 | -22.4% | -628 | -23.5% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Penn State 95% to beat Mercyhurst (5%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Penn State the more likely winner at 95%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Penn State a 95% chance of beating Mercyhurst, against 5% for Mercyhurst. Penn State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Mercyhurst (0-2 so far) project to finish 10.8–18.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Penn State (2-1 so far) project to finish 13.8–17.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercyhurst | 10.8–18.2 | 11% | 0% |
| Penn State | 13.8–17.2 | <1% | 10% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Mercyhurst and Penn State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Mercyhurst have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
Penn State have won 2 of their last 3 (L-W-W, most recent first).