Georgia
3-0
North Carolina
3-0
Win Probability
Two unbeaten teams meet in Chapel Hill, where the simulation leans clearly toward North Carolina. travels to face the Tar Heels in a game that hinges on three-point shooting: the model projects UNC's perimeter attack to thrive while Georgia's outside game struggles to keep pace. In 2,205 games where AccuScore favored a side this decisively, that side won 68 percent of the time. For Georgia to pull off the upset, the Bulldogs would need to neutralize North Carolina's floor spacing and force the Tar Heels into an uncharacteristically poor shooting night.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | UNC | EV | UGA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -184 | +3.3% | +152 | -11.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -190 | +2.7% | +155 | -10.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -197 | +2.1% | -125 | -22.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 160.5 | -110 | +0.2% | -110 | -4.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 162.5 | -105 | -3.2% | -115 | -1.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 160.5 | -110 | +0.2% | -110 | -4.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 160.5 | -5429 | -23.2% | -5429 | -25.9% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 69.1%
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes North Carolina 69% to beat Georgia (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes North Carolina the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives North Carolina a 69% chance of beating Georgia, against 31% for Georgia. North Carolina are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Georgia (3-0 so far) project to finish 15.3–15.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 23% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
North Carolina (3-0 so far) project to finish 21.0–11.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 72% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 15.3–15.7 | 1% | 23% |
| North Carolina | 21.0–11.0 | 6% | 72% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Georgia and North Carolina come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Georgia have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
North Carolina have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).