Ohio State
2-1
#4UConn
3-0
Win Probability
UConn hosts Ohio State in a matchup where the simulation strongly favors the Huskies. Depth in the backcourt will matter here: UConn's projected contributions from their guards should outpace Ohio State's perimeter scoring in a game where possessions will be tightly contested. The Buckeyes' path to an upset runs through forcing turnovers and controlling the glass, but the home team's spacing gives UConn the structural advantage. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side has won 92 percent of 800 graded contests. Ohio State would need to hold UConn below their projection and convert at an unsustainable rate to pull the road upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | CONN | EV | OSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -450 | +0.2% | +340 | -10.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -450 | +0.2% | +340 | -10.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | -7.7% | -110 | +3.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.3% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes UConn 82% to beat Ohio State (18%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UConn the more likely winner at 82%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UConn a 82% chance of beating Ohio State, against 18% for Ohio State. UConn are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Ohio State (2-1 so far) project to finish 18.0–14.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 58% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UConn (3-0 so far) project to finish 25.4–6.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 97% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | 18.0–14.0 | 2% | 58% |
| UConn | 25.4–6.6 | 52% | 97% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Ohio State and UConn come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Ohio State have won 2 of their last 3 (W-W-L, most recent first).
UConn have won 3 of their last 3 (W-W-W, most recent first).