Merrimack
1-2
#1Florida
3-0
Win Probability
Merrimack travels to face Florida in a meeting between a winless visitor and an undefeated home team. The simulation decisively favours the Gators. Florida's depth in scoring will be decisive: the model projects Tyree Appleby at 68% to exceed 15 points and Will Richard at 62% to top 8 rebounds, while Merrimack's offence will struggle to keep pace. On games shaped this way, AccuScore's favoured side won 97% of 621 instances. For Merrimack to pull an upset, its defence would need to suppress Florida's scoring to levels well below projection.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | FLA | EV | MRMK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -100000 | -0.0% | +40000 | -29.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -1.7% | -110 | -2.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -4.4% | -110 | -0.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -1.7% | -110 | -2.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 143 | -115 | -3.9% | -105 | -0.4% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida 100% to beat Merrimack (0%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida the more likely winner at 100%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Florida a 100% chance of beating Merrimack, against 0% for Merrimack. Florida are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Merrimack (1-2 so far) project to finish 17.1–13.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 16% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Florida (3-0 so far) project to finish 24.7–5.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 98% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Merrimack and Florida come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met once since 2025: Merrimack 0, Florida 1. The last meeting, on Nov 20, 2025, finished Merrimack 45, Florida 80.