Troy
1-2
NC State
3-0
Win Probability
Troy travels to face NC State in a matchup the simulation favours decisively toward the home Wolfpack. The Trojans arrive at 1–2 while NC State sits undefeated at 3–0, and the model's side has won 97 percent of the 621 games where it held this strong a lean. Troy's path to an upset runs through perimeter shooting and forcing NC State into a slow pace; across eight similar spots in the model's history, the favoured team won seven. If the Wolfpack can establish early control and limit Troy's three-point attempts, the simulation's projection should hold.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | NCSU | EV | TROY | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -6500 | -1.3% | +2000 | -7.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -10000 | -1.6% | +2400 | +1.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -9000 | -1.5% | +2800 | +9.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -10969 | -1.6% | +245 | -42.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | +0.8% | -110 | -5.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -1.8% | -110 | -2.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | +0.8% | -110 | -5.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 148 | -110 | -0.4% | -110 | -4.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 148.5 | -443 | -19.1% | -299 | -17.0% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes NC State 96% to beat Troy (4%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes NC State the more likely winner at 96%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives NC State a 96% chance of beating Troy, against 4% for Troy. NC State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Troy (1-2 so far) project to finish 14.0–14.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
NC State (3-0 so far) project to finish 20.7–10.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 55% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Troy and NC State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.