NCAAB
Southeast Missouri State
2-1
Middle Tennessee
2-1
Win Probability
Southeast Missouri State travels to face Middle Tennessee in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The model projects a low-scoring affair that hinges on three-point shooting: Middle Tennessee's guard has a 64% chance to make at least three from distance, while Southeast Missouri State's forward sits at just 38% from the same range. That spread in perimeter accuracy could prove decisive in a game expected to turn on possessions. In games where AccuScore has leaned this strongly toward the home team, the favoured side won 81% of the time. For Southeast Missouri State to pull the upset, its defence would need to force turnovers and disrupt Middle Tennessee's rhythm from beyond the arc.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | MTSU | EV | SEMO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -225 | +1.0% | +185 | -8.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -220 | +1.3% | +180 | -8.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -225 | +1.0% | +185 | -8.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -897 | -10.8% | +147 | -13.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 145.5 | -115 | +0.0% | -105 | -4.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 145.5 | -110 | +1.1% | -110 | -5.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 146 | -110 | +0.0% | -110 | -4.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 70.6%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Middle Tennessee 71% to beat Southeast Missouri State (29%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Middle Tennessee the more likely winner at 71%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Middle Tennessee a 71% chance of beating Southeast Missouri State, against 29% for Southeast Missouri State. Middle Tennessee are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Southeast Missouri State (1-1 so far) project to finish 11.9–15.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Middle Tennessee (1-1 so far) project to finish 12.1–14.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southeast Missouri State | 11.9–15.1 | 11% | 10% |
| Middle Tennessee | 12.1–14.9 | 6% | 6% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Southeast Missouri State and Middle Tennessee come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Southeast Missouri State have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).
Middle Tennessee have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).