Wright State
3-0
Samford
1-1
Win Probability
Wright State travels to Samford looking to improve to 4-0 against a Bulldogs team searching for its second win. The simulation leans slightly toward the Raiders, who have shown early-season consistency. Samford's offensive execution will determine whether this stays close: across eight similar games, the favored side won just half the time at 50%, suggesting these tight matchups remain genuinely uncertain. Wright State's depth gives it the slight advantage, but the Bulldogs can steal this at home if their shooting stays efficient enough to keep pace.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | SAM | EV | WRST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +114 | -4.0% | -135 | -0.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +118 | -3.1% | -142 | -1.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +115 | -3.8% | -140 | -1.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -225 | -18.9% | -172 | -4.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 156.5 | -105 | +0.5% | -115 | -4.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -3.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 155.5 | -115 | +0.6% | -105 | -5.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -3.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 156.5 | -443 | -18.3% | -299 | -17.8% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Wright State 57% to beat Samford (43%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Wright State the more likely winner at 57%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Samford a 43% chance of beating Wright State, against 57% for Wright State. Samford are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Wright State (3-0 so far) project to finish 23.1–6.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 46% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Samford (0-1 so far) project to finish 14.7–13.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wright State | 23.1–6.9 | 56% | 46% |
| Samford | 14.7–13.3 | 13% | 12% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Wright State and Samford come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Wright State have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).