NCAAB
Central Arkansas
2-1
#19Arkansas
2-1
Win Probability
Central Arkansas travels to face Arkansas in a matchup the simulation favors decisively to the home side. Jeremiah Wilkinson of Arkansas has a 49% chance of exceeding 30 points, rebounds and assists, while Tucker Anderson of Central Arkansas projects at 48% to clear 20. The game turns on whether Central Arkansas can generate enough offensive firepower to stay within range—the simulation projects a 24-point margin. In the 621 games AccuScore graded where it favored one side this strongly, that side won 97% of the time. For the Bears to pull the upset, they would need multiple scorers to hit their projections simultaneously while Arkansas misfires, a combination the model rates as highly unlikely.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | ARK | EV | CARK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -10000 | -0.9% | +3000 | -6.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -30000 | -1.2% | +4000 | +7.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -20000 | -1.2% | +5000 | +21.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -36823 | -1.3% | +308 | -44.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 159.5 | -105 | +4.6% | -115 | -8.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 159.5 | -115 | +2.3% | -105 | -6.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 158.5 | -115 | +4.4% | -105 | -9.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 160 | -110 | +2.4% | -110 | -6.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 159.5 | -505 | -16.5% | -299 | -20.6% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Arkansas 97% to beat Central Arkansas (3%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Arkansas the more likely winner at 97%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Arkansas a 97% chance of beating Central Arkansas, against 3% for Central Arkansas. Arkansas are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Central Arkansas (1-1 so far) project to finish 17.1–10.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 31% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Arkansas (2-1 so far) project to finish 19.4–12.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 69% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Arkansas | 17.1–10.9 | 40% | 31% |
| Arkansas | 19.4–12.6 | 5% | 69% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Central Arkansas and Arkansas come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Central Arkansas have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).
Arkansas have won 2 of their last 3 (W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: Central Arkansas 0, Arkansas 1. The last meeting, on Nov 10, 2025, finished Central Arkansas 56, Arkansas 93.