Milwaukee
2-2
TCU
3-0
Win Probability
TCU hosts Milwaukee in a matchup where the simulation favors the Horned Frogs decisively. The visitor arrives at 2-2 while the home side stands undefeated at 3-0, and AccuScore's 50,000 simulations project a comfortable margin for the hosts. On games shaped like this one—where the model has leaned this heavily toward one side—the favored team won 97% of 621 historical cases. Milwaukee's path to an upset runs through containing TCU's scoring; the simulation projects the Horned Frogs to reach 90 points, which would require the Panthers to win a close, low-scoring affair neither team's projection suggests is likely.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | TCU | EV | MILW | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -9000 | -0.7% | +2500 | -18.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -20000 | -1.0% | +3500 | -6.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -15000 | -0.9% | +4500 | +5.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -36823 | -1.1% | +245 | -45.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -3.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | -3.2% | -110 | -1.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -3.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | -3.2% | -110 | -1.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 157.5 | -471 | -20.3% | -316 | -16.4% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes TCU 98% to beat Milwaukee (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes TCU the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives TCU a 98% chance of beating Milwaukee, against 2% for Milwaukee. TCU are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Milwaukee (1-2 so far) project to finish 13.5–17.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
TCU (3-0 so far) project to finish 19.3–10.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 60% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Milwaukee and TCU come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.