UIC
3-0
Saint Mary's
2-1
Win Probability
UIC travels to face Saint Mary's in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The Gaels' scoring depth will be tested against a UIC team that has won all three games so far, with Saint Mary's' bench production and ball movement likely to determine whether they can sustain their offensive pace. AccuScore projects this as a low-scoring affair, and the game hinges on whether UIC can stay within striking distance in the second half; in 1,351 comparable spots where the model leaned this strongly to one side, that side won 81% of the time. For the Peacocks to pull the upset, they would need both their defence to force Saint Mary's into uncharacteristic mistakes and their own efficiency on limited possessions to hold up under road pressure.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | SMC | EV | UIC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -258 | +3.4% | +210 | -14.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -260 | +3.3% | +210 | -14.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -260 | +3.3% | +210 | -14.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -371 | -1.1% | +106 | -26.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 150.5 | -115 | -2.1% | -105 | -2.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 151.5 | -105 | -2.7% | -115 | -1.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 150.5 | -505 | -19.3% | -299 | -17.4% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 77.0%
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Mary's 77% to beat UIC (23%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Mary's the more likely winner at 77%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Saint Mary's a 77% chance of beating UIC, against 23% for UIC. Saint Mary's are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UIC (2-0 so far) project to finish 18.8–11.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 19% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Saint Mary's (2-1 so far) project to finish 23.4–6.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 73% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UIC | 18.8–11.2 | 16% | 19% |
| Saint Mary's | 23.4–6.6 | 60% | 73% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How UIC and Saint Mary's come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UIC have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Saint Mary's have won 2 of their last 3 (L-W-W, most recent first).