NCAAB
North Carolina Central
0-3
Liberty
1-1
Win Probability
Liberty hosts North Carolina Central in a game where the simulation strongly favors the home side. The Eagles' defence will need to pressure Liberty's guards early; across eight similar spots, AccuScore's favored team won all eight. North Carolina Central's Darius Maddox projects for 12.8 points with a 58% chance of exceeding that mark, while Liberty's Blake Preston profiles for 16.2 points at 61% probability — the gap in perimeter scoring will likely decide this one. For the Eagles to pull off the upset, their bench would need to outperform Liberty's depth significantly, a rare occurrence in games shaped this way.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | LIB | EV | NCCU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -2400 | -1.8% | +1200 | -1.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -2500 | -1.8% | +1300 | +1.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -2105 | -1.5% | +1203 | -1.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 138.5 | -115 | +0.6% | -105 | -5.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 137.5 | -115 | +2.7% | -105 | -7.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 139 | -110 | +0.5% | -110 | -4.9% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Liberty 93% to beat North Carolina Central (7%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Liberty the more likely winner at 93%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Liberty a 93% chance of beating North Carolina Central, against 7% for North Carolina Central. Liberty are at home and favoured on these numbers.
North Carolina Central (0-3 so far) project to finish 9.1–16.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Liberty (0-1 so far) project to finish 18.3–10.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 24% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Central | 9.1–16.9 | 15% | 12% |
| Liberty | 18.3–10.7 | 29% | 24% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How North Carolina Central and Liberty come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
North Carolina Central have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2022: North Carolina Central 0, Liberty 1. The last meeting, on Nov 14, 2022, finished North Carolina Central 63, Liberty 79.