NCAAB
Texas Southern
1-2
Murray State
3-0
Win Probability
Murray State hosts Texas Southern in a clash where the simulation strongly favours the home side. Texas Southern arrives at 1–2, while Murray State stands unbeaten at 3–0, and AccuScore's model sees little path for the visitors in this matchup. The game hinges on three-point shooting: if Texas Southern can generate consistent volume from distance, they keep possessions competitive, but Murray State's defence has allowed just 22% of their opponents' three-pointers to fall. In games shaped this decisively, AccuScore's favoured side won 97% of the time across 622 prior matchups. For Texas Southern to pull off the upset, they would need to both shoot efficiently from deep and force the Racers into uncharacteristic offensive struggles.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | MUR | EV | TXSO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -20000 | -0.6% | +3500 | -19.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -20000 | -0.6% | +5000 | -6.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -9962 | -0.4% | +2171 | -30.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 162.5 | -105 | +0.1% | -115 | -4.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | +1.4% | -110 | -5.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 162 | -110 | +0.2% | -110 | -4.6% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Murray State 98% to beat Texas Southern (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Murray State the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Murray State a 98% chance of beating Texas Southern, against 2% for Texas Southern. Murray State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Texas Southern (0-2 so far) project to finish 10.7–18.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Murray State (3-0 so far) project to finish 21.3–9.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 27% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Southern | 10.7–18.3 | 6% | 8% |
| Murray State | 21.3–9.7 | 23% | 27% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Texas Southern and Murray State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Texas Southern have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
Murray State have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).