Alcorn State
0-3
Tarleton State
2-1
Win Probability
Alcorn State travels to face Tarleton State in a matchup heavily favoring the home side. The simulation leans decisively toward Tarleton State, projecting a double-digit margin. Alcorn State's struggle to score will be the crux of the game; across 50,000 simulations, the Braves averaged just 68.8 points. On games where AccuScore's model has favored one side this strongly, that side won 92% of the time across a sample of 800 past contests. For Alcorn State to pull the upset, its offense would need to function far above its season baseline and force Tarleton State into uncharacteristic inefficiency.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | TAR | EV | ALCN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1800 | -3.8% | +1000 | +18.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -1200 | -2.6% | +750 | +2.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -2105 | -4.1% | +914 | +12.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 152.5 | -108 | -5.8% | -112 | +1.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -6.2% | -110 | +1.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 152 | -110 | -5.0% | -110 | +0.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 151.5 | -10969 | -25.6% | -10969 | -23.9% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Tarleton State 88% to beat Alcorn State (12%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tarleton State the more likely winner at 88%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tarleton State a 88% chance of beating Alcorn State, against 12% for Alcorn State. Tarleton State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Alcorn State (0-3 so far) project to finish 8.2–23.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Tarleton State (0-1 so far) project to finish 11.6–16.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorn State | 8.2–23.8 | 3% | 3% |
| Tarleton State | 11.6–16.4 | 6% | 6% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Alcorn State and Tarleton State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Alcorn State have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).