NCAAB
Miami (OH)
2-0
Evansville
2-1
Win Probability
Miami travels to Evansville as a decisive favourite in the simulation. The Red Hawks' depth gives them the advantage: Evan Ipsaro has a 49% chance of exceeding 21 points, rebounds and assists, while Justin Kirby projects a 45% chance at 17, providing multiple scoring avenues the Purple Aces must account for. On the other side, AJ Casey carries Evansville's offensive load with a 45% chance of surpassing 26 combined points, rebounds and assists. When AccuScore has favoured a team this strongly across similar games, that side won 81% of the time. For Evansville to pull the upset, Casey's scoring would need to spike well above his projection while Miami's bench contributors fall short of theirs.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | EVAN | EV | M-OH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +295 | -2.4% | -375 | -1.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +270 | -5.4% | -345 | -1.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +290 | -3.0% | -375 | -1.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +271 | -5.3% | -393 | -2.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -3.5% | -110 | -1.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 152.5 | -125 | -3.9% | -125 | -6.1% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Miami (OH) 76% to beat Evansville (24%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Miami (OH) the more likely winner at 76%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Evansville a 24% chance of beating Miami (OH), against 76% for Miami (OH). Evansville are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Miami (OH) (2-0 so far) project to finish 19.1–9.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 21% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Evansville (1-1 so far) project to finish 7.1–21.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (OH) | 19.1–9.9 | 22% | 21% |
| Evansville | 7.1–21.9 | <1% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Miami (OH) and Evansville come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Miami (OH) have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2018: Miami (OH) 1, Evansville 1. The last meeting, on Nov 5, 2023, finished Miami (OH) 64, Evansville 72.