NCAAB
LSU
3-0
#14Gonzaga
2-0
Win Probability
Gonzaga hosts LSU in a matchup between two unbeaten teams, with the simulation favoring the Zags decisively. LSU's three-win start puts them in unfamiliar territory on the road; across eight similar games where the model leaned this heavily toward the home side, that side won four times. Gonzaga's depth will be tested by LSU's scoring threats, but the simulation projects the visitor to manage only 76 points—a floor that hinges on limiting second chances and three-point attempts. For LSU to upset the projection, its bench would need to outpace Gonzaga's in a sustained run; instead, the model expects the home team to pull clear in the final minutes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | GONZ | EV | LSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -275 | +1.3% | +220 | -10.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -280 | +1.0% | +225 | -9.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -316 | -0.5% | +191 | -13.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 161.5 | -115 | -5.9% | -105 | +1.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 161.5 | -115 | -5.9% | -105 | +1.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 162 | -110 | -6.0% | -110 | +1.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 75.2%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Gonzaga 75% to beat LSU (25%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Gonzaga the more likely winner at 75%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Gonzaga a 75% chance of beating LSU, against 25% for LSU. Gonzaga are at home and favoured on these numbers.
LSU (3-0 so far) project to finish 19.3–12.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 64% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Gonzaga (2-0 so far) project to finish 22.8–5.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 93% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How LSU and Gonzaga come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.