Toledo
1-3
Detroit Mercy
0-2
Win Probability
Toledo travels to Detroit Mercy as a decisive favourite in this matchup between teams still finding their footing early in the season. The simulation leans strongly toward the Rockets, who project to win by a comfortable margin. Scoring depth will decide this game: Toledo's offensive projection hinges on whether its guards can sustain production, while Detroit Mercy must generate enough perimeter shooting to stay within range. In games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favoured side won 81 percent of the time across its record. Detroit Mercy's path to an upset runs through forcing Toledo into inefficiency and keeping the combined scoring down.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | DETM | EV | TOL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +340 | -2.3% | -440 | -2.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +375 | +1.5% | -500 | -3.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +340 | -2.3% | -450 | -2.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +321 | -4.3% | -541 | -3.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 152.5 | -115 | -1.8% | -105 | -2.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 153.5 | -115 | -4.5% | -105 | +0.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 152.5 | -115 | -1.8% | -105 | -2.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -3.5% | -110 | -1.0% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Toledo 78% to beat Detroit Mercy (22%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Toledo the more likely winner at 78%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Detroit Mercy a 22% chance of beating Toledo, against 78% for Toledo. Detroit Mercy are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Toledo (1-3 so far) project to finish 17.0–14.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Detroit Mercy (0-2 so far) project to finish 8.0–19.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 17.0–14.0 | 15% | 14% |
| Detroit Mercy | 8.0–19.0 | 1% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Toledo and Detroit Mercy come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Toledo have won 1 of their last 3 (W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2017: Toledo 3, Detroit Mercy 0. The last meeting, on Nov 15, 2025, finished Detroit Mercy 83, Toledo 90.