NCAAB
IU Indianapolis
3-0
Morehead State
1-2
Win Probability
IU Indianapolis arrives at Morehead State as a perfect team facing an inconsistent one, but this simulation leans slightly toward the home side. The projection hinges on pace: combined scoring sits just below the market total, and whether these teams can generate enough possessions will determine the outcome. Among past games with similar win probabilities, the favored side won 57 percent of the time. Look for Morehead State to pull the upset if IU Indianapolis cannot sustain its three-win start against a host that has shown vulnerability at home.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | MORE | EV | IUIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +2.5 | -115 | +5.2% | -105 | -10.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +2.5 | -110 | +6.4% | -110 | -11.0% |
| Book | MORE | EV | IUIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +116 | +6.4% | -140 | -9.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +110 | +4.8% | -130 | -7.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.5% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Morehead State 52% to beat IU Indianapolis (48%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Morehead State the more likely winner at 52%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Morehead State a 52% chance of beating IU Indianapolis, against 48% for IU Indianapolis. Morehead State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
IU Indianapolis (2-0 so far) project to finish 10.7–19.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Morehead State (0-2 so far) project to finish 11.7–16.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| IU Indianapolis | 10.7–19.3 | 1% | 1% |
| Morehead State | 11.7–16.3 | 9% | 8% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How IU Indianapolis and Morehead State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
IU Indianapolis have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Morehead State have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).