Cincinnati
2-1
Dayton
1-2
Win Probability
Cincinnati travels to Dayton for a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the Bearcats. The model has Cincinnati winning in roughly two of every three outcomes, with the game turning on perimeter shooting—how efficiently each team converts from three and whether Dayton can match Cincinnati's offensive rhythm. In 2,206 past games where AccuScore favored one side this strongly, that side won 68% of the time. Dayton would need to force Cincinnati into a lower-efficiency shooting night while protecting the ball; the simulation projects a close enough final score that ball security and three-point discipline will separate these teams.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | DAY | EV | CIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +7.5 | -120 | +0.9% | -102 | -5.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +6.5 | -105 | -0.6% | -115 | -3.8% |
| Book | DAY | EV | CIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +235 | +3.4% | -295 | -4.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +225 | +1.8% | -280 | -3.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | -5.6% | -110 | +1.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | -5.6% | -110 | +1.1% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Cincinnati 68% to beat Dayton (32%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Cincinnati the more likely winner at 68%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Dayton a 32% chance of beating Cincinnati, against 68% for Cincinnati. Dayton are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Cincinnati (2-1 so far) project to finish 19.3–12.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 53% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Dayton (1-2 so far) project to finish 16.2–15.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 19.3–12.7 | 3% | 53% |
| Dayton | 16.2–15.8 | 5% | 11% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Cincinnati and Dayton come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Cincinnati have won 2 of their last 3 (L-W-W, most recent first).
Dayton have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2023: Cincinnati 1, Dayton 1. The last meeting, on Nov 10, 2025, finished Dayton 62, Cincinnati 74.