NCAAB
Utah Valley
2-0
Nevada
2-1
Win Probability
Utah Valley travels to face Nevada in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Utes enter undefeated at 2-0 but will need to contend with Nevada's depth, particularly in a game where bench scoring and perimeter shooting will likely separate the teams. AccuScore's model has shown 92% accuracy on games shaped this strongly in favor of the preferred side across 804 graded contests. Utah Valley's path to an upset runs through forcing Nevada into inefficiency from outside, since the simulation projects a relatively low combined score that leaves little room for either offense to establish rhythm. For the Wolfpack to fall short of expectations, an unusual shooting collapse from their backcourt would need to occur.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | NEV | EV | UVU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -9.5 | -120 | +0.2% | -102 | -5.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10.5 | -105 | +0.1% | -115 | -4.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | -10.5 | -105 | +0.1% | -115 | -4.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -10 | -110 | +0.7% | -110 | -5.1% |
| Book | NEV | EV | UVU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -580 | -2.3% | +420 | -1.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -500 | -1.2% | +375 | -5.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -550 | -2.0% | +400 | -3.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -680 | -3.4% | +321 | -10.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -115 | +1.6% | -105 | -6.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 153.5 | -105 | +1.3% | -115 | -5.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 153.5 | -105 | +1.3% | -115 | -5.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 153 | -110 | +1.5% | -110 | -5.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 152.5 | -147 | -3.6% | -125 | -9.7% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Nevada 81% to beat Utah Valley (19%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Nevada the more likely winner at 81%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Nevada a 81% chance of beating Utah Valley, against 19% for Utah Valley. Nevada are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Utah Valley (1-0 so far) project to finish 17.3–10.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Nevada (2-1 so far) project to finish 22.4–8.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 40% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Valley | 17.3–10.7 | 22% | 18% |
| Nevada | 22.4–8.6 | 27% | 40% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Utah Valley and Nevada come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Nevada have won 2 of their last 3 (L-W-W, most recent first).