Longwood
3-1
Old Dominion
4-0
Win Probability
Longwood travels to face Old Dominion in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Old Dominion's offensive depth will be tested early; the model projects the Monarchs' leading scorer to exceed 18 points in 62% of outcomes, while Longwood's primary option clears 16 in just 48% of simulations. The game likely turns on whether Longwood can manufacture perimeter scoring against Old Dominion's depth—AccuScore's model has favored sides this strongly in 2,206 past games and won 68% of them. For the visiting Lancers to pull the upset, they would need to force Old Dominion into uncharacteristic inefficiency while sustaining their own three-point volume.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | ODU | EV | LONG | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -300 | -2.1% | +240 | -2.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -417 | -5.4% | -206 | -29.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 143.5 | -115 | +4.1% | -105 | -8.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 144.5 | -110 | +3.0% | -110 | -7.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 144.5 | -110 | +3.0% | -110 | -7.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 144.5 | -110 | +3.0% | -110 | -7.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 144.5 | -120 | +0.9% | -152 | -13.1% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Old Dominion 72% to beat Longwood (28%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Old Dominion the more likely winner at 72%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Old Dominion a 72% chance of beating Longwood, against 28% for Longwood. Old Dominion are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Longwood (1-1 so far) project to finish 16.0–13.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Old Dominion (3-0 so far) project to finish 16.6–12.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Longwood | 16.0–13.0 | 11% | 10% |
| Old Dominion | 16.6–12.4 | 10% | 8% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Longwood and Old Dominion come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Longwood have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
Old Dominion have won 3 of their last 3 (W-W-W, most recent first).