NCAAB
Howard
2-2
Davidson
3-0
Win Probability
Davidson hosts Howard in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home team. Howard enters at 2–2 while Davidson remains undefeated at 3–0, and the model projects a roughly ten-point margin in Davidson's favour. The game hinges on three-point shooting: Davidson's perimeter accuracy will likely determine whether the Wildcats' lead expands or Howard's visitors can stay within striking distance. When AccuScore has leaned this strongly toward a side in the past, that side won 81 percent of 1,356 graded games. For Howard to pull off an upset, their bench scoring would need to exceed Davidson's depth advantage.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | DAV | EV | HOW | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -375 | +0.3% | +290 | -10.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -741 | -4.9% | +286 | -10.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | +0.6% | -110 | -5.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | +0.6% | -110 | -5.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | +0.6% | -110 | -5.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 141.5 | -129 | -3.0% | -129 | -8.3% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Davidson 80% to beat Howard (21%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Davidson the more likely winner at 80%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Davidson a 80% chance of beating Howard, against 21% for Howard. Davidson are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Howard (2-2 so far) project to finish 17.9–10.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 43% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Davidson (3-0 so far) project to finish 21.5–10.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 22% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Howard and Davidson come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.