UT Rio Grande Valley
2-1
UT Arlington
3-1
Win Probability
UT Rio Grande Valley travels to Arlington to face UT Arlington, where the simulation favors the home side clearly. The Mavericks' depth in perimeter scoring will be crucial; UT Arlington projects to win if it can consistently execute from outside while keeping the Vaqueros' attack contained. UT Rio Grande Valley has shown it can compete—it enters at 2-1—but will need to generate enough scoring to overcome a host that the model gives a decisive advantage. In games with a lean this strong, AccuScore's pick has won 68% of the time across 2,206 graded matchups. For the Vaqueros to pull the upset, they would need to control pace and force UT Arlington into an inefficient shooting night.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | UTA | EV | RGV | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -192 | +0.8% | +160 | -6.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -247 | -3.1% | -188 | -24.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 141.5 | -108 | -5.2% | -112 | +0.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | -5.6% | -110 | +1.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 141.5 | -110 | -5.6% | -135 | -3.4% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes UT Arlington 67% to beat UT Rio Grande Valley (33%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UT Arlington the more likely winner at 67%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UT Arlington a 67% chance of beating UT Rio Grande Valley, against 33% for UT Rio Grande Valley. UT Arlington are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UT Rio Grande Valley (1-1 so far) project to finish 14.2–15.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UT Arlington (1-1 so far) project to finish 17.8–11.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 27% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UT Rio Grande Valley | 14.2–15.8 | 7% | 7% |
| UT Arlington | 17.8–11.2 | 33% | 27% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How UT Rio Grande Valley and UT Arlington come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UT Rio Grande Valley have won 1 of their last 1 (W, most recent first).
UT Arlington have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: UT Rio Grande Valley 0, UT Arlington 1. The last meeting, on Dec 10, 2025, finished UT Arlington 58, UT Rio Grande Valley 50.