UMBC
2-2
Towson
2-2
Win Probability
Towson hosts UMBC in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Zion Stanford has a 47% chance of exceeding 28 combined points, rebounds and assists for Towson, while Ben Roseborough sits at 47% on 25—both players operating near the threshold of their projected contributions. For UMBC, Jovan Ristic projects at 46% to surpass 19 combined, a mark the visitors will need to hit consistently to stay competitive. The game turns on whether UMBC's traveling lineup can generate enough offensive creation; AccuScore's model has favored sides this strongly in 804 past games and won 92% of them. A UMBC upset would require the Retrievers to exceed their projected scoring total significantly and force Towson's lead scorers into inefficiency.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | TOW | EV | UMBC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -475 | -0.9% | +360 | -6.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -680 | -3.5% | +362 | -6.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 147.5 | +102 | -7.0% | -147 | -1.8% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Towson 81% to beat UMBC (19%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Towson the more likely winner at 81%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Towson a 81% chance of beating UMBC, against 19% for UMBC. Towson are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UMBC (1-2 so far) project to finish 15.6–14.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Towson (2-2 so far) project to finish 17.8–12.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How UMBC and Towson come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met 2 times since 2018: UMBC 0, Towson 2. The last meeting, on Dec 9, 2023, finished Towson 89, UMBC 73.