#10Louisville
2-0
Memphis
2-1
Win Probability
Louisville travels to Memphis as a decisive favourite in this matchup between unbeaten teams. The simulation leans strongly toward the Cardinals, who project to outscore the Tigers by a touchdown-plus margin. Memphis will need efficient perimeter shooting—the model gives Jahvon Quinerly a 60% chance of surpassing 15 points—while Louisville's depth should wear down a shorter bench. The game turns on whether Memphis can match Louisville's offensive consistency; across eight similar contests, the favoured side won 81% of the time. For the Tigers to pull the upset, they would need both the bench to hold up and their defence to disrupt Louisville's rhythm early.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | MEM | EV | LOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +255 | -2.3% | -320 | -2.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +250 | -2.9% | -320 | -2.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +232 | -5.3% | -351 | -3.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | -0.9% | -110 | -3.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 161 | -110 | +0.4% | -110 | -4.8% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisville 73% to beat Memphis (27%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisville the more likely winner at 73%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Memphis a 27% chance of beating Louisville, against 73% for Louisville. Memphis are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Louisville (2-0 so far) project to finish 19.4–9.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 74% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Memphis (2-1 so far) project to finish 17.8–13.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 21% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | 19.4–9.6 | 10% | 74% |
| Memphis | 17.8–13.2 | 14% | 21% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Louisville and Memphis come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Louisville have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Memphis have won 2 of their last 3 (L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 6 times since 2011: Louisville 4, Memphis 2. The last meeting, on Dec 13, 2025, finished Memphis 73, Louisville 99.