NCAAB
Boise State
3-0
#25Nebraska
3-0
Win Probability
Boise State travels to face Nebraska in a matchup between undefeated teams where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Cornhuskers' depth in the backcourt will be tested early; Nebraska's guards project to combine for 34.2 points, while Boise State's perimeter options figure to struggle in transition. The game turns on whether Boise State can keep Nebraska's bench scoring under control—the visitors will need significant scoring from their reserves to stay close. In similar spots with this probability shape, AccuScore's favored side has won 81% of games. An upset would require Boise State to generate surprising offensive efficiency despite playing on the road.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | NEB | EV | BOIS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -300 | -2.1% | +240 | -2.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -300 | -2.1% | +240 | -2.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -332 | -3.2% | +245 | -1.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 158.5 | -115 | -6.3% | -105 | +2.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | -3.1% | -110 | -1.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 158.5 | -135 | -9.4% | -125 | -2.0% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Nebraska 72% to beat Boise State (28%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Nebraska the more likely winner at 72%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Nebraska a 72% chance of beating Boise State, against 28% for Boise State. Nebraska are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Boise State (2-0 so far) project to finish 20.6–9.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 52% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Nebraska (3-0 so far) project to finish 22.8–9.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 84% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 20.6–9.4 | 13% | 52% |
| Nebraska | 22.8–9.2 | 8% | 84% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Boise State and Nebraska come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Boise State have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Nebraska have won 3 of their last 3 (W-W-W, most recent first).