New Haven
1-2
Penn State
3-1
Win Probability
Moneyline
NHVN
+1418
3.0% win prob
EV -27.2%
Polymarket
Moneyline
PSU
-10969
97.0% win prob
EV -1.1%
Polymarket
New Haven travels to Penn State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The Nittany Lions' depth should prove decisive: Penn State's projected scoring output reflects a team built to impose its pace, while New Haven's offensive ceiling looks limited against that pressure. On games where the model has leaned this heavily toward one side, that team won 97% of the time across 655 graded contests. For New Haven to pull the upset, the Quakers would need to generate consistent stops and convert at the rim at rates well above their season tendency—a difficult ask on the road.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | PSU | EV | NHVN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -10969 | -1.1% | +1418 | -27.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -3.9% | -110 | -0.6% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Penn State 97% to beat New Haven (3%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Penn State the more likely winner at 97%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Penn State a 97% chance of beating New Haven, against 3% for New Haven. Penn State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
New Haven (1-2 so far) project to finish 12.8–15.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Penn State (3-1 so far) project to finish 14.0–17.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Haven | 12.8–15.2 | 16% | 0% |
| Penn State | 14.0–17.0 | <1% | 10% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How New Haven and Penn State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
New Haven have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
Penn State have won 3 of their last 4 (W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: New Haven 0, Penn State 1. The last meeting, on Nov 8, 2025, finished Penn State 87, New Haven 43.