NCAAB
Cal Poly
2-2
Montana State
1-2
Win Probability
Montana State hosts Cal Poly in a game where the simulation decisively favors the Bobcats at home. The projected scoring—Cal Poly at 77.9 points, Montana State at 87.1—hinges on whether the Mustangs can generate enough perimeter shooting to keep pace; Cal Poly will need to limit Montana State's efficiency in the paint to stay competitive. In games where AccuScore has leaned this heavily toward the home side, that team won 92% of 811 comparable matchups. For Cal Poly to pull the upset, the Mustangs' bench production will have to exceed expectations and keep Montana State from controlling the boards throughout.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | MTST | EV | CP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -1736 | -7.5% | +106 | -29.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 165.5 | -110 | -4.1% | -110 | -0.5% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Montana State 80% to beat Cal Poly (20%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Montana State the more likely winner at 80%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Montana State a 80% chance of beating Cal Poly, against 20% for Cal Poly. Montana State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Cal Poly (1-2 so far) project to finish 11.4–18.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Montana State (1-2 so far) project to finish 16.1–12.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly | 11.4–18.6 | 2% | 3% |
| Montana State | 16.1–12.9 | 22% | 18% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Cal Poly and Montana State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Cal Poly have won 1 of their last 3 (W-L-L, most recent first).
Montana State have won 1 of their last 3 (L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: Cal Poly 0, Montana State 1. The last meeting, on Dec 15, 2025, finished Montana State 83, Cal Poly 80.