Alabama State
1-2
San José State
1-2
Win Probability
Moneyline
ALST
+442
11.5% win prob
EV -18.8%
Polymarket
Moneyline
SJSU
-5429
88.5% win prob
EV -4.9%
Polymarket
San José State hosts Alabama State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the Spartans. AccuScore's model has run 50,000 simulations and strongly leans toward the home side, a lean supported by the historical record: in 811 graded games where the model favoured a side this strongly, that side won 92 percent. The game turns on offensive execution—Alabama State projects to 72.1 points while San José State is projected at 84.8, a gap that reflects the visitors' struggle to generate offence on the road. For Alabama State to pull the upset, the Spartans would need to falter significantly from their simulated output, a reversal that similar games shaped this way have rarely produced.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | SJSU | EV | ALST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -5429 | -4.9% | +442 | -18.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 160.5 | -110 | -11.3% | -110 | +6.8% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes San José State 89% to beat Alabama State (12%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San José State the more likely winner at 89%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San José State a 89% chance of beating Alabama State, against 12% for Alabama State. San José State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Alabama State (0-1 so far) project to finish 8.0–21.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
San José State (1-2 so far) project to finish 11.4–18.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama State | 8.0–21.0 | 3% | 3% |
| San José State | 11.4–18.6 | 1% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Alabama State and San José State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
San José State have won 1 of their last 3 (L-L-W, most recent first).