Tarleton State
3-1
Drake
3-0
Win Probability
Tarleton State travels to face Drake in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. In 815 games where the model leaned this strongly toward one team, that side won 91% of the time. Drake's scoring will likely prove the difference; the simulation projects the Bulldogs to reach the high 70s while projecting Tarleton State in the mid-60s. For the visiting Texans to pull the upset, they would need to find offensive efficiency that exceeds what the model expects—a climb made steeper by the projected scoring gap.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | DRKE | EV | TAR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -710 | -2.3% | +490 | -1.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1274 | -4.9% | +175 | -27.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 145.5 | -115 | -2.9% | -105 | -1.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 145.5 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.7% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Drake 84% to beat Tarleton State (16%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Drake the more likely winner at 84%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Drake a 84% chance of beating Tarleton State, against 16% for Tarleton State. Drake are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Tarleton State (1-1 so far) project to finish 11.4–16.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Drake (2-0 so far) project to finish 16.4–14.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarleton State | 11.4–16.6 | 5% | 5% |
| Drake | 16.4–14.6 | 9% | 10% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Tarleton State and Drake come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Tarleton State have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
Drake have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).