Portland State
2-2
Saint Mary's
3-1
Win Probability
Saint Mary's hosts Portland State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Gaels' depth should prove decisive: Saint Mary's projects to 84.3 points, while Portland State is expected around 66.0. Portland State's offensive execution will determine whether the visitors can stay competitive; the model sees a 49% chance the combined score clears the total, suggesting a tighter affair than the projected margin implies. AccuScore's simulations have favored sides this strongly in 658 past games, and those sides won 97% of them. For Portland State to pull the upset, their guards would need to sustain shot-making well above projection and force turnovers at an unusual rate.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | SMC | EV | PRST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -3582 | -1.6% | +663 | -27.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -3.6% | -110 | -0.9% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Mary's 94% to beat Portland State (6%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Mary's the more likely winner at 94%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Saint Mary's a 94% chance of beating Portland State, against 6% for Portland State. Saint Mary's are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Portland State (1-2 so far) project to finish 14.6–13.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Saint Mary's (3-1 so far) project to finish 24.1–5.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 77% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland State | 14.6–13.4 | 19% | 15% |
| Saint Mary's | 24.1–5.9 | 65% | 77% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Portland State and Saint Mary's come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Portland State have won 1 of their last 3 (W-L-L, most recent first).
Saint Mary's have won 3 of their last 4 (W-L-W-W, most recent first).