NCAAF
Missouri State
3-0
Florida International
3-0
Win Probability
An undefeated Missouri State side travels to face undefeated Florida International at home, with the simulation clearly favoring the hosts. The game hinges on passing volume: Florida International's JJ Kohl is projected for 190 yards while Missouri State's Henry Belin IV is expected to manage just 160, a gap that compounds through field position and time of possession. Devonte Lyons anchors the ground game with 60 projected rushing yards, offsetting Missouri State's Connor Lair at 50. In games where the model has leaned this strongly toward the home side, it won 66 percent of its past matchups. For Missouri State to pull the upset, it would need Belin to exceed expectations and its defence to limit Kohl's opportunities significantly.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MOST ML
MOST +140
-2.2% EV
36.4% leads · push 8.2%
DraftKings ↗
1H FIU ML
FIU -154
-0.2% EV
55.4% leads · push 8.2%
FanDuel ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
MOST +2.5 -102
-2.7% EV
47.7% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
FIU -2.5 -114
-0.9% EV
52.3% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
O 24.5 -105
-3.5% EV
47.6% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 24.5 -112
-0.4% EV
52.4% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | FIU | EV | MOST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -4.5 | -112 | -1.6% | -108 | -3.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -4.5 | -110 | -1.2% | -110 | -3.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -5 | -108 | -2.3% | -110 | -1.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -4.5 | -110 | -1.2% | -109 | -3.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -5.5 | -110 | -4.4% | -110 | -0.1% |
| Book | FIU | EV | MOST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -205 | -2.7% | +170 | -0.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -188 | -1.3% | +155 | -3.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -210 | -3.1% | +165 | -1.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | -200 | -2.3% | +167 | -1.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -200 | -2.3% | +170 | -0.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 49.5 | -115 | -4.6% | -105 | +0.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 49.5 | -114 | -4.4% | -106 | +0.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 49.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -108 | -0.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 49.5 | -113 | -4.3% | -106 | +0.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 50.5 | -110 | -6.1% | -110 | +1.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 36.4%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Florida International 64% to beat Missouri State (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida International the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Florida International a 64% chance of beating Missouri State, against 36% for Missouri State. Florida International are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Missouri State (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.4–7.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Florida International (3-5 so far) project to finish 5.3–6.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State | 4.4–7.6 | <1% | 0% |
| Florida International | 5.3–6.7 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Missouri State and Florida International come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Missouri State have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Florida International have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-W, most recent first).