Missouri State
4-6
Jacksonville State
7-3
Win Probability
Jacksonville State hosts Missouri State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Henry Belin IV's projected 180 passing yards will need to stretch Jacksonville State's defense, while Caden Creel's 190 passing yards and Deondre Johnson's 40 receiving yards anchor the hosts' attack. The game turns on whether Missouri State can generate enough explosive plays to stay within reach; the visitors project to 21.3 points against Jacksonville State's 31.4. On games shaped this way, AccuScore's favored side won 76% of 2,225 graded matchups. For the Bears to pull the upset, Connor Lair and Isaiah Myers would need to sustain drives that keep Jacksonville State's offense off the field.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | JXST | EV | MOST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -9.5 | -110 | -1.2% | -110 | -3.4% |
| Book | JXST | EV | MOST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -335 | -1.0% | +270 | -4.7% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -340 | -1.1% | +280 | -3.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -373 | -2.1% | +193 | -14.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 51.5 | -110 | +1.7% | -110 | -6.3% |
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Missouri State (4-6 so far) project to finish 4.7–7.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Jacksonville State (7-3 so far) project to finish 8.1–3.9 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State | 4.7–7.3 | 0% | 0% |
| Jacksonville State | 8.1–3.9 | 2% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Jacksonville State 76% to beat Missouri State (25%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Jacksonville State the more likely winner at 76%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Jacksonville State a 76% chance of beating Missouri State, against 25% for Missouri State. Jacksonville State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Missouri State and Jacksonville State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Missouri State have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
Jacksonville State have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).